Keller's Fantasy Football Blog

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Rookies on the Rise

In this post I am just going to discuss which rookies I think are most likely to have a good career, due to their situation, talent, or both. It will just highlight the player and a few justifications. Also, as a disclaimer, I am trying not to talk about the high profile guys (Josh Jacobs and David Montgomery).

Tony Pollard, RB Dallas Cowboys, with Zeke’s holdout and all the hype surrounding him at camp, he looks poised to be “The Guy” in Dallas. In most leagues he is available on the waiver wire, but if you wait to long he will be gone. Dallas’s playbook is pretty RB dependent so he is a potential league winner depending on how long Zeke’s holdout runs.

Justice Hill, RB Baltimore Ravens, is a guy who has been impressing in camp and in preseason games. As it stands right now, he is probably the third or fourth RB on the depth chart. The good news is Mark Ingram is ancient so we don’t really know how much longer he will remain relevant. That role will be taken over by Gus Edwards, but I am thinking that Hill will be the change of pace back. The Ravens run the ball the most of any team in the NFL, so even the change of pace guy is valuable. I would give him a shot, based on upside, and the idea that at this point Hill may be the most talented RB on their roster.

Alexander Mattison, RB Minnesota Vikings, is currently the backup RB on the depth chart behind Dalvin Cook. Dalvin Cook is a very talented back, but Mattison is looking great in camp and preseason. Cook is talented, but fragile to say the least, and I believe that if the Vikings are smart, they will limit his snaps. If they are dumb, also possible, they will run him into the ground because of his talent, and his body may not hold up. Either way it is going to most likely mean more touches for Mattison. I don’t like to bet on injuries, I think it’s pretty morbid, but Cook is injury prone and Mattison can be a reliable handcuff at worst and a league winner at best.

Last but not least, Miles Sanders, RB Philadelphia Eagles, for my Eagles fans out there. Going into this year I wasn’t too high on Sanders, but he looks phenomenal. Could this be the year the Eagles find their workhorse back? I think it is possible that next year at this time we are talking about drafting Sanders in the first or second round. He is in a high powered offense, with too many weapons for defenses to load up the box. The Eagles defense is solid, so they will be looking to run the ball towards the end of games giving him more touches. Finally, before you trade your team away to get him be patient, he still has to beat out Jordan Howard, and we have to see what Doug Pederson will do about the Running Back situation. I am just saying, if you can get him in a draft, where you like him more than anyone else on the board, take him, and you may just get the steal of the draft.

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Zeke’s Holdout

Ezekiel Elliott (Zeke) is the running back for the Dallas Cowboys (America’s Team LOL). He was selected with the 4th pick in the 2016 NFL Draft. Despite his off the field issues, he is regarded as one of the league’s rising stars. He has led the league in rushing yards per game since entering the league in 2016. He has been All-Pro, and invited to the Pro Bowl twice in his three years in the league. While he is still on his rookie contract, he has made the decision (or his agent has) that he isn’t getting paid enough. Admittedly, he has been among the league’s best, and he just saw what happened to Le’Veon Bell, so it is not a complete surprise that he feels he needs the new deal now. The shelf life of Running Backs in the NFL is short and due to the position’s demands they take the most hits per play of any skill position (non-lineman). Zeke is also a more “contact seeking” back than most in the league. He is the centerpiece of the Dallas offense, and they need him to bring their Super Bowl aspirations into reality.

Zeke’s holdout is troubling to the Cowboys but it has given other players the opportunity to show that they deserve to be the primary back with Elliott out of the mix. There are 3 players behind Zeke on the depth chart. Two rookies, Tony Pollard and Mike Weber, Pollard being more of a speedy receiving back, and Weber being more of a pure runner with less versatility. The third back is the new signee, Alfred Morris, who has been with the Cowboys before and performed admirably. The recent report out of camp is that Pollard is electric, and is impressing the coaches and players at Cowboys training camp. This sounds like something to be ignored however, because if he was doing so well why sign Morris in the first place. I think Morris will most likely take some of the early down work with Pollard coming in on third down, and in pass catching situations. Weber will most likely rotate in a little bit but I think Pollard’s role as a pass catcher is safe, meaning that Morris and Weber will be competing for early down work.

I know this post is getting pretty long, but as a final thought I just want to make it clear why all of this matters. Zeke before the holdout was going in the top 2 picks of most leagues fantasy drafts. Typically, you were either taking Zeke or Saquon Barkley, both are young, talented and projected for an immense workload (the fantasy trifecta). So, having Zeke is great, but also he is running behind one of the best lines in the NFL. The Cowboys line has been good since Zeke got into the league and he has rewarded them with his stellar stats. Zeke has now publicly stated that he will not play without a new contract, so there is a good chance he misses some regular season time. I do believe however, that he comes back towards the end of Preseason. He loves being a Cowboy, and Jerry Jones can’t afford to put the season into Dak Prescott’s hands. If he misses more than 3 games this season, due to this holdout, the Cowboys will struggle to make the playoffs let alone the Super Bowl.

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Training Camp Hero: KeeSean Johnson

KeeSean Johnson (#19) is a rookie wide receiver for the Arizona Cardinals. He was drafted with the first pick of the 6th round, of 2019 NFL Draft. He was the third receiver taken by the Cardinals but appears to be impressing the new coaching staff. New head coach Cliff Kingsbury has made it clear that he is going to bring his high-flying offense to the NFL. In the offseason, every analyst that I heard from was high on Andy Isabella. Isabella is also a rookie receiver (taken in the second round) out of UMass. He was a production machine and broke many school records. Despite his resume, he lacks elite size, and due to being from UMass people are concerned how his game will translate to the NFL. That being said, the recent reports from Cardinals training camp is that Johnson is in all of the three-receiver sets. Johnson is viewed as the most pro-ready receiver while the other two receivers are looked at as projects, with much to learn behind the great Larry Fitzgerald. In most fantasy leagues, KeeSean Johnson is unowned and unwanted. I think he could have a really great season, especially if this Air Raid offense works, and if he gets hurt just drop him. Ironically, I think the other receivers the Cards drafted this year (Isabella and Butler) have more dynasty value for the future but if you are looking for a potential up and coming receiver he may be your guy. One final point, if you haven’t drafted yet take him with the last pick, and if he doesn’t work out drop him and get someone who is performing.

The Problem with Le’veon Bell

Le’veon Bell is currently the starting running back for the New York Jets. Last year, Bell was drafted as a top three pick in most fantasy drafts. He had a lot of things working for him. He was on a top offense (Steelers), had a very talented offensive line, had the skills to make the most of his touches, and with his receiving ability had a good chance to score on the ground or in the air. This year, he is a back end first round pick or (at worst) a very early second round pick. However, with all these things said, why does drafting Bell feel so….icky.

Well it feels icky for a few reasons; the first being that if you are drafting a player in the first few rounds you are typically trying to avoid as much risk as possible and as we saw last year Bell could just decide, “I don’t feel like playing this year.” The second issue is that the Jets new Head Coach (Adam Gase) is a bit of a butthole. He is offenses in the past few years, with the Dolphins, were pretty bad. You could try to blame the player personnel but…. you would be wrong. A third issue is he hasn’t played a snap in the NFL in over a year now. So, we don’t know how his body is going to hold up this year taking the beating that a workhorse running back goes through every day of the NFL season. On top of that Bell is going to be leaned on pretty heavily because Sam Darnold is only in his second year, so expect the Jets to be more of a run heavy team so that Darnold doesn’t feel the pressure of having to make all of the plays. Finally, I am sorry for all my Jets fans out there LOL, but guys he plays for the Jets unless you are expecting the Jets to suddenly be good this year they will stink. Typically, teams that stink and can’t score don’t have many players that you want on your fantasy team (See Cardinals, Jags and Bills).

Preseason Takeaway: Daniel Jones

Daniel Jones is currently the backup quarterback for the New York Giants. He was drafted in with the 6th pick of the 2019 Draft. The pick was initially thought of with some skepticism for a variety of reasons. Jones wasn’t given a first round grade by the top draft analysts, he didn’t play against the toughest competition in college football, and it seemed that the Giants were the only team that actually wanted him. They had two picks in the first round and many thought they would take him with the second pick (17th overall) that they had in the first round. I don’t want to speak for all Giants fans, but I don’t think they were happy about passing up on Josh Allen (highly regarded pass-rusher from Kentucky) to get someone who they probably could have got at 17. Did he change the minds of fans in his preseason debut?

Daniel Jones went 5/5 for 67 yards and a touchdown. He looked really good, he showed poise in the pocket, and is starting to turn some doubters into believers. The haters are going to say ” who cares it’s preseason” and to some extent they are right. The believers (Gettleman and company) will say “see we were right to get him so early, he is a future star”, I will confess I am not there yet. I do believe that he COULD BE a star, but I am not going to anoint him after one, very small, sample size. The sample size was against second stringers, at a half speed game that didn’t matter. For his sake, I hope his career takes the path the Giants front office believes it could, but I think the Giants should temper expectations for now. Do you think Jones is the second coming for the New York Giants, here to lead them to new heights, or is this hype just too much too soon?

Make or Break Year: Marcus Mariota

Marcus Mariota is the starting quarterback of the Tennessee Titans. He was drafted with the number 2 overall pick in the 2015 NFL Draft. He is a former Heisman trophy winner (first Hawaiian- born athlete) from the University of Oregon. Since he has been drafted the Titans have been living in a state of mediocrity. The Titans offense hasn’t been looked at as an elite offense since drafting Mariota, in fact, they have been one of the least effective offensive units in the NFL. You could make the argument that the Titans are a run first offense, but in a division with Andrew Luck and Deshaun Watson, you have to be able to put some points on the board. Another thing that is slowly killing Mariota’s stock is that he always seems to be injured. Last year, he had an elbow injury (throwing arm), a concussion, and a stinger (whatever that is). When he was drafted people thought he would bring the Titans back into relevance. He has not done that, and his time as a starter in this league is running short. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Titans go in another direction in the 2020 NFL Draft whether Mariota is healthy or not. They brought in Ryan Tannehill this offseason to motivate Mariota to be better, or just to be a backup for when Mariota inevitably goes down. It is ironic that Mariota and Jameis Winston (QB for the Buccaneers) are both in a similar position after going 1 and 2 in the 2015 Draft. Both are entering a season where if they don’t perform their team should move on from them. I think in the 2020 offseason we see the Titans go in a different direction at the quarterback position.

Make or Break Year: Jared Goff

Jared Goff is the starting quarterback for the Los Angeles Rams. He was drafted with the number one overall pick in the 2016 NFL Draft (right before Carson Wentz). Though he had a rocky start to his NFL career, under coach Jeff Fisher, he is coming off an NFC title and Super Bowl loss. The second-year head coach of the Rams, Sean McVay, is looked at as something of a genius and usually gets the credit for the Rams prolific offense. Jared Goff has shown some flashes of brilliance, but I don’t think the NFL players, coaches, or fans are sold on him being a superstar quarterback. He has one of the best supporting casts in the league including: Todd Gurley (former offensive player of the year), Robert Woods, Brandin Cooks, and Cooper Kupp. On top of all of these things, the Rams also have a star studded defense. The defense being as good as it is, should take so much pressure off of Jared Goff that his job is very limited. He gets told what to do by Sean McVay, he has playmakers around him, and (if he turns the ball over) the defense still may keep him in the game. With all of these things being said he has still struggled in big situations (see the Super Bowl). Goff has a lot to live up to being a former number one pick, and knowing that the other QB taken right after him (Carson Wentz) already has a Super Bowl ring.

I do not believe that he is in as dire of a situation as either of the other QB’s I have written about, but I do believe that if he doesn’t start getting some rings the question will be asked if the Rams may have been better off with Wentz. I know this is never going to happen but I would like to see what Goff could offer a team without McVay and that great Rams roster. I think he would be a middle of the pack QB. I also think that in his current role he is much more of a game manager than people realize. When we think of the greats (Brady, Brees, and Rodgers) we never really wonder if they would be middle of the road without a fantastic supporting cast (usually because they make the players fantastic) and I just don’t see that in Goff. I think the Rams need to win now while they are young and star studded because if they don’t, they may be waiting awhile if the load is 100% on Goff’s shoulders.

Make or Break Year: Cam Newton

Cam Newton is the starting QB for the Carolina Panthers. He is one of the few gifted players that has known success at every level. He was drafted in 2011 by the Panthers, with the number one overall pick. In his rookie season, he brought the Panthers back to relevance and went on to win the Rookie of the Year. A few seasons later he led his team to Super Bowl 50 and won the MVP that year ( I don’t need to tell you who won the Super Bowl). Since then, it hasn’t been such smooth sailing for the Panthers and Newton. They missed the playoffs in the 2016 and 2018 seasons, both seasons included a banged up Cam, in 2016 he had a concussion and last year he had a shoulder injury that required surgery. In 2017, he led the Panthers to the #5 seed in the NFC and lost to the Saints in the Wild Card round.

This is a make or break season for Cam Newton. The Carolina Panthers selected the QB Will Grier out of WVU with the 100th overall pick. Cam turns 30 this year and, with his play style, he can not remain effective and on the field if he keeps taking the hits he has sustained in his career to date. They are in one of the hardest divisions in football, with the Saints, Falcons, and Buccaneers. The Buccaneers seem to be in a constant rebuilding mode, but the Falcons reached the Super Bowl in 2016, and the Saints almost reached the Super Bowl the past two years. The Panthers are not going to be okay with missing the playoffs again, so with Cam in a contract year my opinion is if they do well and he remains healthy this season they will re-sign him. If he gets injured or plays poorly, we may see the Carolina Panthers let him hit Free Agency, and turn over the team to Will Grier. Another possible outcome, assuming Newton goes down for a few games, is that they give Grier a shot to prove himself and he disappoints. I believe Will Grier may be the future of the Panthers but the NFL is unforgiving, if he gets a shot and doesn’t produce, expect the Panthers to draft a QB in the QB heavy 2020 NFL Draft. Which Cam do you think we will see this year; 2015 MVP Cam or 2016 Super Bowl Slump Cam?

Make or Break Year: Ben Roethlisberger

Ben Roethlisberger (Big Ben) is the Quarterback for the Pittsburgh Steelers. Over the past several years the Steelers offense under Big Ben has been regarded as an elite offense in both the fantasy community and NFL alike. This year however, everyone seems to be either down on the Steelers or so high on the Browns that the Steelers become irrelevant. With the departures in the offseason of Le’veon Bell and Antonio Brown the Steelers offense will certainly have a bit of a different look this year, considering the two of them were widely regarded as being in the top tier of their respective positions. Those departures have given way to up and coming stars James Conner and Juju Smith-Schuster to step in and ascend to greatness. With all these things being said I believe this is a make or break year for Big Ben. He enters his 16th season with the Steelers, and this year in particular he has something to prove. The Antonio Brown (AB) saga resulted in some pretty serious accusations the worst being “Ben is a bad leader”, which is a pretty big thing for the most important player on your team to be. I feel that this year, if the Steelers do well and make it to the playoffs that will kind of disprove all of what was said, and show that AB (Mister Big Chest) was just being a little bit dramatic. However, if the Steelers fall flat and underperform, we could see the end of the Big Ben era in Pittsburgh. The 2020 NFL Class is full of very talented QB prospects and if the Steelers stink it up this year you can bet they will be looking pretty hard at drafting one. Finally, I must confess that the Steelers are among my least favorite teams in the NFL, but I do think it would be a pretty big slap in the face to some people to see them do really well this year. Please comment below what you think I would love to hear some other thoughts. I will be making this a segment, going through some QB’s I think are on a bit of a “hot seat”.

Dynasty RB question. Jacobs or Johnson?

Which of these 2 RB’s would you prefer when drafting a dynasty team and why.

Josh Jacobs- RB- Oakland Raiders (ADP RB20)

Kerryon Johnson- RB- Detroit Lions (ADP RB19)

On one hand Josh Jacobs came out of Alabama looking like a beast ready to take on the NFL but after a rather underwhelming Combine he has been brought down to Earth. He was taken as one of the Raiders first round picks in the 2019 Draft and looks poised for a huge workload in the upcoming season. Oakland was one of the worst offensive teams last year and while they have made some new additions I am still not sold that they are going to be all that great. One final point, Jacobs may have the skills to be a great NFL back but can his body stand up to the challenge of being a workhorse, a role he never had in college.

On the other hand we have Kerryon Johnson, the second year back out of Auburn. Last year he had a solid rookie campaign even though he was battling with LeGarrette Blount for the early part of the season. He finished the season as the RB34 (PPR scoring) and the Lions have since gotten rid of Blount. A lot of people are pretty high on Johnson and for good reason but I am not completely sold yet for a few reasons. If the Lions thought he was so good at the end of the year why did they feel the need to go out and get C.J. Anderson? The Lions over the past few seasons have been among the bottom of the league in rushing yards, most likely due to being in a negative game script for most of the time, do they think that that will change in the upcoming season? Finally, Johnson has even stated to the media that he doesn’t see himself as an “every down back”. If he doesn’t have the confidence in himself then neither do I. I am going Jacobs here all day.